Canada technically slipped into a recession over the winter of 2025 and pulled right back out of it. With tariff headlines still swinging back and forth, it’s worth knowing what actually signals trouble versus what’s just noise.
In this episode of Think Smart with TMFG, we break down how to prepare for a recession: what the technical definition actually requires, why the stock market moves as a leading indicator rather than a warning sign after the fact, and how long recessions typically last compared to how deep the headlines make them sound.
We also dig into one of the most common mix-ups: treating a scary tariff percentage as the full picture. A tariff rate applied to a small slice of total trade volume tells a very different story than the headline number alone, and knowing that distinction changes how you should actually react.
From there, we break down the three pillars of protecting your money in a downturn: income, expenses, and portfolio defence, and why a “no sell, no loss” approach using the fixed income portion of a balanced portfolio can keep you from locking in losses during a correction.
Finally, we share practical strategies for getting ahead of the next cycle: building an emergency fund of three to six months of expenses, assessing how exposed your industry is to economic shocks, and structuring your portfolio so you’re never forced to sell equities while they’re down.
📌 If a potential recession or market volatility has you rethinking your financial plan, feel free to reach out. We’d be happy to help you through those decisions:
🎧 Listen to the full episode on YouTube.
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